Weather Risk Analysis & Management

  CME Group Weather Futures Index on Globex

  2009 Climate Perspective, NOAA National Climatic Data Center

  Daily U.S. Agricultural Weather Highlights - USDA Office of the Chief Economist

  Weekly International Agricultural Weather Highlights - USDA Office of the Chief Economist

  Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin - National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS); USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System

  Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin - World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB); USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System

Weather has a very large effect upon business, commerce and finance:

Frost can destroy agricultural commodities in the field, which effects how large and of what quality an annual crop harvest may be.

An increase in moderate wind speed can promote evaporation that limits the effectiveness of irrigation.

Weather conditions effect long-haul truck freight and may halt traffic from reaching a distribution point, temporarily driving up prices for agricultural commodities.

Weather conditions can keep cargo container, petroleum, LNG and dry bulk maritime traffic from entering port to unload cargo, temporarily driving up prices for commodities.

The amount of rain fall within an agricultural region will effect the quality of growth of an agricultural commodity and will determine whether farmers have to pay for expensive water resources that increases the cost of the commodity for consumers.

Hurricanes and tornados have a strong influence on the level of property & casualty insurance claims in any given year.

Hurricanes can cause the evacuation and shutdown of floating oil rigs, offshore loading facilities and onshore refineries.

Lightning can cause forest fires that burn down thousands of acres of useful timber land.

Long-term weather patterns such as El Niño, La Niña and atmospheirc warming disrupt weather conditions and patterns across the entire world.

Local weather conditions can have a big impact on the amount of energy consumption.

Accurate weather forecasting is essential for growers to prepare row covers, tree wraps or heaters in advance for crop killing frosts. The Dew Point measurement (temperature at which the air is saturated with water) is extremely helpful in determining the likelihood of frost with an advancing cold front. As the dew point approaches the temperature, condensation occurs and ice begins to build on thin, solid objects such as branches and leaves and then the fruit if the air temperature is at or even near 32° and continues for a length of time.

The long-term environmental conditions of a region are predictable due to its geography and seasonal climatic changes. However, the current weather on any given day(s) of a region is dependent upon present or developing conditions. These developing weather conditions are always in a constant state of transistion due to the extreme temperature and humidity contrasts between the Polar regions and the Equator, and between the continental and the maritime regions of the Earth. The large, seasonal, dynamic air masses that develop over these regions are pushed by winds in the atmosphere into a neighboring region and the contrast between the levels of temperature and humidity (cold and warm fronts) result in various current weather patterns.

In the United States, weather observation are recorded by meteorological stations of the National Weather Service. The data they produce is reviewed and archived by the National Climatic Data Center. Observations variables include: temperature, precipitation, snowfall, snow depth, wind, barometric pressure, cloud cover and visibility/ceiling measurements.

"Weather" occurs within the Troposphere, the region from ground level to approximately 9 miles / 15 kilometers above the Earth's surface which contains the greatest level of water vapor. Just above the Troposphere is the Tropopause and then the Stratosphere.

Air Pressure

A Barometer measures air pressure. An increase in the barometer reading, or a rising barometer, indicates that the air pressure is increasing. Conversely, the decline in a barometric reading, or a falling barometer, indicates that air pressure is declining. The change is an increase in pounds per square inch, with normal air pressure at approximately 14.7 pounds per square inch (1.033 grams per square centimeter) at sea level. A Barometer reading is also affected by elevation (air pressure is greatest at sea level and declines as one moves into a higher altitude) and prevailing weather conditions. High air pressure tends to reflect clear (or clearing) skies and low humidity. This is because a high pressure system enters a region at a higher altitude and then moves downward to replace the lower pressure system either underneath or surrounding it. As the high pressure system moves in it brings dryer conditions as air is forced closer to the earth's surface. Conversely, the departure (rising) of the lower pressure system ahead of the high pressure system is characterized by clouds and storm conditions.

The Millibar (MB) is the metric measurement of atmospheric pressure used by the National Weather Service. Standard surface pressure is 1,013.25 millibars (29.92 inches of mercury / 760 millimeters of mercury). Barmoeters use to utilize mecury, which would rise and fall within a glass column in response to air pressure. Thus the barometric pressure measurement in "inches of mercury" reflects that one inch of mercury is equivalent to 33.86 millibars (mB) or 25.40 millimeters. When air pressure is rising than the mercury is also rising (1 millibar = .03 inches = 0.75 millimeters).

A trough is an extensive area of low atmospheric pressure (sometimes referred to as an upper-level low), which is normally receded by stormy weather and colder air at the surface.

Wind Direction

This is an indicator of where the wind is blowing from.

Leeward is the side of the island or a ship's suraface that is furthest away from the wind and protected from the direct force of the wind (also known as downwind).

Windward is the direction from which the wind is blowing (also known as upwind).

An offshore breeze indicates that the wind is blowing from the water toward land. Conversely, an onshore breeze indicates that the wind is blowing from the land toward the water.

The Jet Stream is the horizontal, westerly flow (blows from the west in a eastward direction) of air at high altitudes. Much of the weather of North America and the Caribbean region is related to the position and strength of the Jet Stream.

Convection is the transport of heat and moisture, especially by updrafts and downdrafts in an unstable atmosphere. Thunderstorms are a form of convection.

Wind Speed

An Anemometer measures the wind speed velocity. Speed measurement grid: 1 knot per hour equals one international nautical mile (sea mile) per hour, which is equivalent to 1,852 meters or 1.151 statute miles (ground mile) per hour. (When referring to marine navigation, a nautical mile is equal to a minute of arc of a great circle on a sphere).

Temperature

It is important to look for and distinguish between the air temperature and the water temperature. Air temperature is measured by a thermometer.

      A comparison of Fahrenheit and Centigrade (Celsius):

Convert from Degrees Fahrenheit (F) to degrees Celsius (C):     [(F) - 32)] * 0.555556 = (C)

Convert from Degrees Celsius (C) to degrees Fahrenheit (F):     [(C) * 1.8] + 32 = (F)

Humidity

A Hygrometer measures the relative humidity or what percentage of water vapor is present of the total amount of water vapor that could possibly be present at that given temperature (this is not a measure of water vapor as a percentage of the atmosphere).

Cloud formation

Cloud formation can provide a clear indication of present or pending weather. Clear, sunny days are an indication that a high atmospheric pressure front dominates the region. Clouds only form when there is sufficient moisture in the air or sufficient wind to move moisture into a region. Unfortunately, radar can only detect thunderstorms and/or rain drops only after water in the atmosphere has condensed and becomes thick enough to reflect a radar frequency/wave. At this point it is already too late, the storm is imminent. However, recent research indicates that radar may travel slower through moisture laden atmosphere and several radar stations working together may be able to accurately pinpoint increasing moisture.

Stratus - low altitude (0 to 6,500 feet) and resemble a layer of clouds and indicate that moisr air is rising slowly in a stable atmosphere.

Cumulus Mediocris - low altitude (2,000 to 4,000 feet), solid, puffy clouds that pockets of warm air are rising into the atmosphere.
source: NOAA

Altocumulus - lower altitude (6,000 to 16,000 feet), series of many clouds caused by the rise of a large air mass.
source: NOAA

Cirrus - very high (16,000 feet and above), wispy clouds that can be observed on bright, clear sunny days, formed by the deterioration of clouds and the formation of ice high in the atmosphere.
source: NOAA

Cirrus Unicus - very high (16,000 feet and above), similar to Cirrus but have hook-like shape at the end of the wisp.

Cirrocumulus - very high (16,000 feet and above), indicates that a large mass of moist air has risen into the upper atmosphere, reached the point of saturation and has formed ice crystals.
source: NOAA

There appears to be sufficient research and sufficient agreement among climatologists, researchers and mteorologists that the surface temperature of the earth has increased over the past several decades (when measured against accurate record keeping over the last century). However, there is not sufficient agreement regarding whether the increase is a natural development or entirely related to the activities of humans.

What are the causes of a potential human activity-related temperature increase?

The release of "greenhouse" gases related to the burning of fossil fuels used in manufacturing and power generation.

The release of "greenhouse" gases related to automobile emissions.

The release of "greenhouse" gases related to maritime shipping and aviation industries.

The release of methane from large cattle herds maintained in both North and South America.

The reduction of forested areas (deforestation) due to timber harvest and desire for additional acreage for farming.

The theory is that the release of these greenhouse gases acts as a barrier in the atmosphere that holds the heat of the earth from escaping, hence the increase in the surface temperature. Related to this is the debate as to whether global warming is, or already has, going to increase the frequency and ferocity of hurricanes within the Caribbean / West Atlantic. Hurricanes are formed in, and fed by, warm water and air moisture, which would appear to be the result of a rise in global surface temperature.

Up until February 15, 2006, the official position of the NOAA was that it discounted any connection between global warming and a rise in hurricane activity / intensity. However, after some researchers had gone so far to publicly accuse the NOAA of scientific censorship, the NOAA now indicates on its website that some of its researchers disagree with that position. This is an important issue within the United States such that if there is a shift in position by government agencies regarding the cause and effect of global warming then there obviously a need for revised regulations, which will have a big impact on the economic livelihood of the nation.

In February 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a comprehensive report (IPCC 4th Asessment Report) indicating that the global warming observed over the past several decades is "very likely" caused by human activity (burning of fossil fuels). "Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations." The IPCC was established (1988) by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and its working groups consist of hundreds of research scientists, authors and economists from around the world. Idependently published observations have indicated that of the 12 warmest years on record, 11 of those years were recorded since 1995. Similarly, it would appear that annual average temperature has risen 0.74° C during the past century. The IPCC report itself indicates that these trends will continue in the foreseeable future. Another section of the IPCC report indicated that man-made factors are responsible for the increased intensity of tropical storms.   Read the Report (.pdf format).

An earlier study that appeared in the Journal of Climate, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Department of Commerce, also suggests that due to global warming patterns, it is possible that hurricanes will become more intense. The increase in both wind speed and rainfall will be the result of the continued rising temperature of the seas over the next several decades in response to the unchecked rise in greenhouse gases / global warming. Compunding the issue is the related rise in sea levels, again the result of global warming reducing the amount water suspended in glaciar formations. The rise in the sea level that would naturally increase the probability of flooding will only be exacerbated by the increased intensity of the hurricane. The paper does not address the issue as to whether there will also be an increase in the actual number of hurricanes per given year.   Read the Report   (.pdf format)

However, there is still sufficient scientific, and political, opposition to the position that global warming is as extensive and responsible for climatic change as is indicated by the groups above. These opponents refer to the debate as "mediarology", not meteorology. In all honesty, in support of this view, there is sufficient "geological, archaeological, oral and written histories that all attest to the dramatic challenges posed to past societies from unanticipated changes in temperature, precipitation, winds and other climatic variables". The leading opponent to the golbal warming scenario is Professor William Gray from the Colorado State University. This group of climatologists indicate that it may just be a natural climatic change known as as Atlantic multidecadal mode and that the number of hurricane occurrences are cyclical in nature. They also raise the issue that hurricane (tropical cyclone) data is short-lived (less than 150 years) and earlier data was not accurate. There is also another consensus that there does appear to at least be some belief that temperature levels have increased in response to the increased level of carbon dioxide released by industries and utilities however the actual effect on hurricane formation appears to be minor. The hurricane season of 2006 was originally presented by the NOAA and in the media has going to be particulalry busy and would cause extensive damage. Overall, the opposite was true: the season was quiet and there were very few problems.

The issue for credit and financial analysts is that whether a continued increase in surface temperatures will result in an increase in the extreme weather conditions of hurricane intensity and frequency similar to what was experienced during 2004 and 2005. How does one plan for providing finance to businesses or insuring property under those circumstances and what is the threat to life and livelihood for residents of the eastern United States, the Caribbean and Central America? Unfortunately, the necessity of having to wait for the actual occurrence or non-occurrence of storms in 2007, 2008 and so on to develop an accurate model is of little assistance and consolation.

NASA's Aqua Project (part of NASA's international Earth Observing System / EOS, which is composed of a series of satellites for long-term global observations of the land surface, biosphere, solid Earth, atmosphere, and oceans), includes a satellite with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) capability, which measures temperatures. How could a hurricane like Katrina develop in 2005? Data from the AMSR-E depicts a 3-day average of actual sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from August 25-27, 2005. Every area in yellow, orange or red represents 27.8 degrees Celsius (82 degrees Fahrenheit) or above. A hurricane needs SSTs at about this level or warmer to strengthen.

AMSR-E 3-day average of actual sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from August 25-27, 2005.
source: NASA

A Hurricane is actually a tropical cyclone. The name Hurricane is used to describe a typhoon (Pacific Ocean) or tropical cyclone (Indian Ocean) within the Caribbean, Central America (Ciclone Tropicale and Huracán in Spanish), Mexico, the Gulf of Mexico and east coast of the United States and Canada. Within these geographic regions hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with August and September being the peak months. Tropical cyclone season is from November to April in South Africa. The number of hurricanes that occur annually in the Atlantic Ocean are less numerous than the annual number of typhoons that occur in the Pacific Ocean.

A hurrican begins as an organized, low barometric pressure system in the lower latitude of the Atlantic Ocean. Some Atlantic Ocean hurricanes begin as a small disturbance in the atmosphere above equatorial Africa. These disturbances are referred to as tropical waves and they move west off the shore of Africa into the open Atlantic. If conditions are just right then they may begin to increase in size and commence spinning. If conditions continue to be favorable while still over open water (water surface temperature above 80F / 26.5C, warm water depths of 150 feet / 50 meters, and atmospheric moisture as well) then some develop into tropical depressions. The tropical depression is then termed a tropical storm once the sustained surface wind speed has increased to in excess of 34 knots (approximately 40 miles per hour), with prevalent thunderstorms and a circular pattern. A hurricane is defined by a sustained surface wind speed which has exceeded 65 knots (approximately 75 miles per hour). The direction of the storm is dependent upon the interaction of the the easterly trade winds, the wetsterlies (wind) and the energy of the sotrm itself.

In the Northern Hemisphere (north of the Equator), the direction of the sustained winds of a hurricane are in a rotating counter clockwise direction around an "eye." The most forceful sustained wind occurs along the leading edge of the moving tropical storm / hurricane. The main parts of a tropical cyclone are the rainbands, the eye, and the eyewall.

A potential hurricane first begins as a:

 

Tropical Disturbance - which is a large (several hundred miles) nonfrontal and non-migratory system of clouds and rain

 

Tropical Depression (cyclone) - an organized, low barometric pressure system in the lower latitude of the Atlantic Ocean, with maximum sustained surface winds (1 minute average) of 38 miles per hour (33 knots) or less.

 

The tropical depression is then termed a Tropical Storm, which is a named storm, once the sustained surface wind speed has increased to a range of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots), with prevalent thunderstorms and a circular pattern.

 

A Hurricane is defined by a sustained surface wind speed which has exceeded 65 knots (approximately 74 miles per hour).

Hurricanes themselves are further identified by categories that are assigned based on the weather indicators observed within the storm which is matched to what meteorologists term the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Saffir-Simpson scale takes into considieration the combines barometric, wind speed and storm surge readings in order to classify the storm.

Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale

Category 1 Hurricane: Wind speed range 74 to 95 mph / 64 - 82 kt, Barometric pressure greater than 980 millibars / 28.94 inches of mercury

Category 2 Hurricane: Wind speed range 96 to 110 mph / 83 - 95 kt, Barometric pressure 979 - 965 millibars / 28.50 - 28.91 inches of mercury

Category 3 Hurricane: Wind speed range 111 to 130 mph / 96 - 113 kt, Barometric pressure 964 - 945 millibars / 27.91 - 28.47 inches of mercury

Category 4 Hurricane: Wind speed range 131 to 155 mph / 114 - 135 kt, Barometric pressure 944 - 920 millibars / 27.17 - 27.88 inches of mercury

Category 5 Hurricane: Wind speed range 156 mph and above / 135 kt and above, Barometric pressure less than 920 millibars / 27.17 inches of mercury

(On land, wind damage intensity, such as a tornado, is measured with the Fujita Scale / F Scale, with the scale going from F0 to F5; Tornadoes can be spawned by hurricanes once the storm has made landfall)

Ahead of the actual landfall of the storm, the problem is in determining the speed of the approach of the storm and the necessity to heed an evacuation warning and/or order. Once local conditions deteriorate (high wind and rain) it is time to leave coastal areas on land or nvaigate a boat in an opposite direction if possible. When tropical storms first develop off the coast of Africa they are named and tracked as they begin to move toward the Caribbean region. The U.S. National Weather Service will issue:

 

Tropical Storm WATCH: Tropical storm conditions could be experienced in the specified area, usually within 36 hours.

 

Tropical Storm WARNING: Tropical Storm conditions with sustained winds (rotary circulation) within the range 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots) could be experienced in the specified area, within approximately 24 hours. The warning indicates that any one within the specified area should move to the safest location possible during the storm.

 

Hurricane WATCH: Hurricane conditions with sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher could be experienced in the specified area, usually within 36 hours. The Watch indicates that protective measures should be initiated

 

Hurricane WARNING: Hurricane conditions with sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher could be experienced in the specified area, within approximately 24 hours. The warning indicates that any one within the specified area should move to the safest location possible during the storm.

 

Similarly, a Coastal Flood WATCH and a Coastal Flood WARNING will accompany any tropical storm or hurricane WATCH and / or WARNING.

 

ADVISORY notices are issued at six-hour intervals starting at midnight, 6 a.m., noon, and 6 p.m., EDT, and provide location, rate of speed, direction and wind intensity.

Marine conditions have their own advisories and warnings:

 

A local Squall is a sudden increase of wind speed by at least 18 miles per hour (16 knots) and rising to 25 miles per hour (22 knots) (sustained for a duration of at least one minute). This is a somewhat unpredictable condition and is communicated by those who finally find themselves in it.

 

A Small Craft ADVISORY is issued (approximately 12 hours prior notice) if sustained (one minute duration) surface winds increase to a range of between 23 mph to 39 mph (20 to 34 knots); There is actually no legal definition of the term "small craft", however vessels are advised to remain in port.

 

A Gale WARNING is issued if sustained (one minute duration) surface winds increase to a range of 39 to 54 mph (34 to 47 knots).

 

A Special Marine WARNING is issued when unforecated sustained surface winds increase to 40 mph (35 knots).

 

A Storm WARNING is issued when unforecated sustained surface winds increase to 48 knots or greater.

NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts on the following frequencies:

The significance of Hurricanes, or even a tropical storm, is that the storm surge itself, and the strong, sustained wind activity offshore create higher than average (compared to calm weather conditions) wave swells coming into the shore. Ahead of the actual landfall of the storm, if local weather conditions are clear this may mean the probability of very good wave formation. The problem is in determining the speed of the approach of the storm and the necesity to heed an evacuation warning and/or order. Once local conditions deteriorate (wind and rain) it is time to leave the water / coastal area. In the United States, the National Weather Service issues a warning bulletin to the local authorities through the Emergency Alert System.

As a hurricane or tropical storm approaches a coast line, the high winds push the water ahead of it creating a storm surge: the strong, sustained wind activity offshore create higher than average (compared to calm weather conditions) wave swells coming into the shore. The higher level of water due to the surge has the potential to be many feet / meters higher than normal. The storm surge will result in a situation where water and waves come up over piers or extends far beyond the normal high tide mark to spread into the community causing flood damage. Storm surge height and the potential for damage are even worse during the period of high tide. Additionally, the storm surge can extend for miles along the exposed coast line.

If a hurricane or tropical storm is slow moving then a well organized storm has the capacity to drop inches of rain upon a local area. The rain runoff adds to the problem of coastal flooding from the storm surge. To estimate the total rainfall in inches from a hurricane, divide 100 by the forward speed of the storm in miles per hour ( example: 100 ÷ 12 mph (forward speed) = 8.3 (estimated inches of rain).

Hurricanes will eventually diminish in size and energy (and reverse back to conditions of a tropical storm, tropical depression) by:

Moving over cold water that reduces the heat available to power its engine.

Moving over land, where the ocean heat is cut off altogether.

Encountering strong vertical shear in the atmospheric horizontal winds around the storm.

Being surrounded by profoundly dry conditions in the mid-atmosphere.

How to Track a Hurricane:

1. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), National Weather Service (NWS), National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monitors upper air conditions and disturbances over the Sub-Saharan (Northwest Africa) region and reports on the development of any large, potential storm formations and as they enter the eastern Atlantic Ocean and move westward toward the Caribbean region (Cape Verde-type hurricanes; Hurricanes also develop within the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico).     www.nhc.noaa.gov/     (Look at the mid-center of the page for the Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico section and for any reports from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch / TAFB).

You can also view the Tropical Weather Outlook directly:     www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWOAT.

You can also view the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) Offshore Waters Forecast directly:     www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml?.

You can also view the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) Tropical Cyclone Danger Areas (approx. 36 hours forecast) directly:     www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif.

You can also view the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion directly:     www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?.

You can also view the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) Atlantic Marine Weather Discussion directly:     www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml?.

You can also view the Daily Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential for the Caribbean Region:     www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html and for the Western Atlantic :     www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html.

2. Initial Reports will indicate whether the formations is a:     Tropical Disturbance
                                                                                              Tropical Depression
                                                                                              Tropical Storm (Named Storm)

3. View the Meteosat-8 East Atlantic Imagery Page:     www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl.html   (Offers several view options of West Africa / Eastern Atlantic).

4. View the GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites) East Atlantic Sector Infrared Image:     www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html   (12km resolution).

5. View the GOES Central Atlantic Imagery Page:     www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl.html   (Offers several view options of the Central Atlantic).

6. View the GOES West Atlantic Imagery Page:     www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl.html   (Offers several view options of the Western Atlantic).

7. View the GOES Caribbean Imagery Page:     www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb.html   (Offers several view options of the Caribbean Region).

8. View the GOES Gulf of Mexico Imagery Page:     www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex.html   (Offers several view options of the Gulf of Mexico Region).

9. View the GOES Storm Floater 1 Imagery Page:     www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html   (Offers several view options of current activity).

The GOES East satellite is a data stream consisting of the following imagery products: visible, infrared, and water vapor for the Eastern Conterminous United States (CONUS), Puerto Rico, supernational composites, and Northern Hemisphere (NH) composites.

10. Check for an update from The National Hurricane Center (NHC)     www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (Look for the Barometric pressure decreasing, Wind speed increasing, Storm size increasing).

11. The U.S. National Weather Service, NOAA, will issue:   Tropical Storm WATCH
                                                                                           Tropical Storm WARNING
                                                                                           Hurricane WATCH
                                                                                           Hurricane WARNING

The U.S. National Weather Service Advisory Notices are issued at six-hour intervals starting at midnight, 6 a.m., noon, and 6 p.m., EDT, and provide location, rate of speed, direction and wind intensity.

12. The U.S. National Weather Service, NOAA, will classify the Hurricane based on the: Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.

National Data Buoy Center (United States / International)

The National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) is an agency within the National Weather Service (NWS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (United States). The NDBC operates and maintains an international network of automated monitoring buoys (moored and drifting) from the West Pacific to the North Atlantic oceans. Each buoy conducts a series of meteorological readings (wind direction, speed, gust, significant wave height, swell and wind-wave heights and periods, air temperature, water temperature, sea level pressure, wave direction), which can be accessed to determine wave conditions within the general vicinity of the buoy station. One can review the large regional map first (that approximates your location) and then click on the five-digit identifying number of the buoy located in your immediate vicinity.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA (United States)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is a division of the United States Department of Commerce. The NOAA administers the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and also adminsters the weather satellite program that relays information to various organizations.

www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml   (direct link for the National Hurricane Center)

www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html   (Satellite Services Division, Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery)

www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR2/20.jpg   (Satellite Services Division, GOES - Western Atlantic)

www.nnvl.noaa.gov/   (NOAA Environmental Visualization Program)

Global Hydrology and Climate Center (NASA / United States)

The Global Hydrology and Climate Center is a division of NASA, and provides a constant update Infrared Satellite Imagery View of the Caribbean region. NOAA satellite imagery reports are based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time, sometimes also referred to a Zulu Time) as a reference time.

wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html

Additional Hurricane Prediction and Preparedness Services

NOAA home page:   www.noaa.gov

NWS home page:   www.nws.noaa.gov

NWS marine dissemination page:   www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/home.htm

NWS marine text products:   www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/forecast.htm

NWS radio facsmile/marine charts:   weather.noaa.gov/fax/marine.shtml

NWS publications:   www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutpubs.shtml?

NOAA Weather Radio:   www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr

National Ocean Service (NOS):   co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/

NOS Tide data:   tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/

Tropical Prediction Center:   www.nhc.noaa.gov/

High Seas Forecasts and Charts:   www.nhc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

Marine Prediction Center:   www.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Please also see   Catastrophe Risk Page.

It is impossible to control weather (although the activities of man has had an effect upon the climate of the earth) and it is equally as difficult to predict future weather conditions although meteorological research models have improved significantly. Weather-related risk management is necessary for energy utilities, agricultural producers, construction companies and insurance companies that may see their revenues effected by weather-related volatility. Even municipal governments and retailers of apparel, beverages and appliances are effected by the weather. Weather risk management products are possible because, for instance, there is a correlation between observed temperatures, energy consumption and the level of injection / withdrawal of natural gas at storage facilities; or, for instance, there is a correlation between rainfall indices and crop acreage yield; or, for instance, there is a correlation between precipitation and hydropower production. However, weather-related risk is very difficult to hedge as it is impossible to have a physical market for "weather", thus there is no national market or indices. Secondly, the pricing for weather derivatives is based on historical meteorological data (statisical average and standard deviation / volatility), which is not a good predictor of future weather patterns for something as unpredictable as the "weather".

Weather Derivatives Market

Weather Futures and Options on Futures

  CME Group Weather Futures Index on Globex

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offers a standardized Monthly and Seasonal futures contract and options on futures contract products:

U.S. Weekly, Monthly and Season Weather (Temperature - HDD and CDDs) Futures and Options

European Monthly and Seasonal Weather (Temperature - HDD and CATs) Futures and Options

Asia-Pacific Monthly and Seasonal Weather (Temperature) Futures and Options

Canadian Monthly and Seasonal Weather (Temperatures - HDD, CDD and CATs) Futures and Options

Frost Day Monthly and Seasonal Futures and Options

Snowfall and Seasonal Snowfall Futures and Options

Hurricane Seasonal, Seasonal Maximum and Event Futures and Options, based on Carvill Hurricane Index

Weather Contingent Options (Degree-Day Options)

Offered for 18 U.S. (Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Cincinatti, Dallas, Des moines, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, Portland, Sacramento, Salt Lake City, Tucson) and nine European cities (Amsterdam, Barcelona, Berlin, Essen, London, Madrid, Paris, Rome and Stockholm). The contracts are designed to allow an interested party to hedge for extreme weather conditions in these cities based on an index of observed and recorded (National Weather Service observation station) heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) as reported by the meteorological stations at the metropolitan international airports of these cities. A similar standardized futures contract on 3 European (Berlin, London, Paris) cities is also offerd by LIFFE.

The primary hedge is against weather related effects upon revenue generation. For instance, a utility is affected by unusually mild winter weather (which reduces the demand for heating oil, natural gas and steam heating) and unusually cool summer weather (which reduces the demand for electricity to operate air conditioning units). The usual attempt to hedge against the decline in revenue is to purchase an over-the-counter (OTC) option. These options are structured to payout a specified amount if a minimum amount of heating degree days (HDD, as reported for a specified number of consecutive days by independent meteorological stations) is not reached during a utility's peak winter season or if a minimum amount of cooling degree days (CDD, again as reported for a specified number of consecutive days by independent meteorological stations) is not reached during a utility's peak summer season. The use of the option helps to offset the loss of icome from the lower demand.

Supplies and prices of natural gas (to either operate plants or deliver to end-user customers) and coal (to operate plants) are also affected (correlated) to weather. Most supply contracts between producers and utilities are long-term. However, during abnormally mild winter weather or abnormally cool summer weather a utility may find that it is over-supplied. Conversely, during abnormally cold winter weather and abnormally hot summer weather a utility can find itself short of fuel supply do to higher than anticipated consumption. Again, in this case an OTC weather / temperature-related option is structured and purchased by a utility to allow for a payout related a price drop / oversupply condition based on if a minimum amount of heating degree days (HDD, as reported for a specified number of consecutive days by independent National Weather Service meteorological observation stations and compiled by the National Climatic Data Center) are breached during a utility's peak winter season or if a minimum amount of cooling degree days (CDD, again as reported for a specified number of consecutive days by independent National Weather Service meteorological observation stations and compiled by the National Climatic Data Center) are breached during a utility's peak summer season. Conversely, an OTC weather / temperature-related option is structured and purchased by a utility to allow for a payout related a price increase / undersupply condition based on if a minimum amount of heating degree days (HDD, as reported for a specified number of consecutive days by independent National Weather Service meteorological observation stations as compiled by the National Climatic Data Center) is not reached during a utility's peak winter season or if a minimum amount of cooling degree days (CDD, again as reported for a specified number of consecutive days by independent National Weather Service meteorological observation stations and compiled by the National Climatic Data Center) is not reached during a utility's peak summer season.

For the sake of measurement, 65° Fahrenheit (18.3° C) is considered the temperature that is used to distinguish between the cooling and heating seasons. A "Degree Day" is then measured as the amount of temperature between the days recorded temperature and 65° Fahrenheit. To find an average temperature for the day add the day's reported high temperature and the day's reported low temperature and then divide that sum by 2. To determine a Heating Degree Days (HDD) for that specific day subtract the number from 65° Fahrenheit. If it is 0 or negative than there is no degrees day. If it is positive then that is the Heating Degree Days for that specific date. This result produces a number that suggests the possible demand for energy to heat an enclosed space (to 65° F) relative to the external temperature. Thus, if the days high ws 62° and the low 42°, with the sum (104°) divided by 2 to produce the average day's temperature of 52° Fahrenheit, then subtracting that number from 65° Fahrenheit to get the figure of 13 heating degree days. The amount of Heating Degree Days (and cooling degree days) are usually totaled for a month and reported in that manner (see below). Cooling Degree Days (CDD) are computed in the same manner. However, the CDD represents the possible demand for energy to air condition an enclosed space (to 65°) relative to the external temperature.

Degree-Day Swap

Degree-day swaps are offered over-the-counter and on the CME. In this swap, if the recorded degree days for an indexed station are above a strike (specific temperature) then the buyer of the swap receives a payment from the utility / energy producer. Conversely, if the recorded degree days are below the strike then the buyer of the swap pays the producer.

Heating Degrees Days / Cooling Degree Days Archive (1949 - 2008; Energy Information Administration)

HDD Archive   www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0107.html

CDD Archive   www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0108.html

Information Resources

Agricultural Weather Highlights (USDA)   www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/AgWxHighlights/TODAYSWX.PDF   (in .pdf format, requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)
U.S. regional forecast: temperature, percipitation, growing conditions.

Cooling Degree Days (CDD) Archive   www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0108.html

Crop Calendars (Joint Agricultural Weather Facility USDA / NOAA)   www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/calendar/
International calendar by month.

European Meteorological Network   www.eumetnet.eu.org/

Geostationary Satellite Server   www.goes.noaa.gov/

Heating Degree Days (HDD) Archive   www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0107.html

Hydrologic Information Center (NOAA / Flood Risk)   www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hic/nho/

National Climatic Data Center (NOAA)   www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

National Climatic Data Center (NOAA) Current North America Drought Monitor:   www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/drought/nadm/

National Drought Mitigation Center   www.drought.unl.edu/index.htm

National Drought Mitigation Center Current U.S. Drought Monitor   www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NOAA)   www.nesdis.noaa.gov/

National Hurricane Center (NOAA / United States)   www.nhc.noaa.gov/

National Severe Storms Laboratory (NOAA)   www.nssl.noaa.gov/

National Water and Climate Center (U.S. Department of Agriculture)   www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/

National Weather Service (NWS / NOAA, United States)   www.nws.noaa.gov/
NWS Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service   www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.html
NOAA Regional Climate Centers   www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/regionalclimatecenters.html

NASA Global Hydrology and Climate Center   wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)   www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/sport/sport_modeling.html

State Climate Offices (National Climatic Data Center, NOAA)   www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/stateclimatologists.html

U.S. Archived Monthly/All-Time Records (NCDC / NOAA)  

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (Climate Prediction Center, NOAA)   www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

Water Resources of the United States, U.S. Geological Survey   water.usgs.gov/

Water Supply Outlook for Western U.S. (National Water and Climate Center, USDA)   www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/wsf/westwide.html

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (Joint Agricultural Weather Facility USDA / NOAA)   www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdf   (.pdf format)
Regional and state summaries.

Weather Underground:

U.S. Regional Temperature   www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/Temperature.html

U.S. Regional Fronts   www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/Fronts.html

U.S. Regional Heat Index   www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/HeatIndex.html

World Meteorological Organization (United Nations)   www.wmo.ch/

Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (Austria / AT-ZMG / Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics)   www.zamg.ac.at/