U.S. Economic Issues and Indicators

  Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce - U.S. Economy at a Glance

  Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Federal Government Budget Deficit

The United States very quickly went from a period of a government budget surplus during the late 1990s back to running an annual deficit in the early 2000s. During 2009, U.S. federal spending increased by 18% compared to 2008 due ti increased costs related to the financial crisis. Total government spending increased to 24.7% of the nation's GDP (the average over the past 30 years had been approximately 20%). In relation to this condition, revenue received by the U.S. federal government decreased in 2009 by 17% compared to revenue received in 2008 due to economic recession conditions. Revenue, as a percentage of GDP, decreased to 14.8%, the lowest level in 60 years.

Government borrowing to service the deficit means that public funding requirements compete with private capital requirements. This normally has an effect on interest rate levels as the U.S. savings rate is low and the government must sell its debt abroad (previously, Japan was the largest purchaser of U.S. debt and now its is China who is the primary source). In addition, it sends a message that government operations are not being managed adequately (increased spending without offseting increased taxes or increased sources of revenue), which does not instill confidence in the populace or the allies of the United States. One school of thought holds that recent history indicates that public borrowing and the budget situation is also subject to cyclical economic conditions, that running a deficit is not lethal to the U.S. economy, and the budget can be restored to a surplus position during improved economic activity. The opposing position indicates that it was only through tax increases and spending reductions that the U.S. government incurred a budget surplus. The U.S. Federal deficit will mostly increase due to the fact that the Bush Administration would like to make the tax cuts it instituted as permanent, the war in Iraq has required additional unforseen funding, the Medicare perscription drug program was instituted, and the IRS Alternative Minimum Tax code may also not be increased (thus reducing tax revenue). While there has been some improvement in tax revenue due to the improvement in the U.S. Economy in 2004, the increase is insufficient to keep up with mandatory programs such as entitlement programs of Medicare and Social Security and the interest payments due to service U.S. debt.

Municipal Government Deficits

Many states, counties and municipalities have experienced lower tax receipt collections during the recession, and have liabilities not only related to annual operations but increasing liabilities related to unfunded amployee pension obligations, employee benefits, and scheduled bond interest and principal repayment. In 2009, the City of Valleo, California, filed for bankruptcy reorganization, and there was considerable public discussion regarding whether there should be a procedure to allow a state to file for bankruptcy.

Many cities and towns are being affected by property tax appeals. Residential and commercial property values have declined in the United States commencing in 2008, and property owners have challenged the assessed value used for real estate tax calculation. When a claimant is successful, the municipality must rebate partially paid taxes and / or forgo future tax receipts, which causes problems for establishing a balanced budget.

Job Export

The United States has pushed for free trade, which means the unhindered movement of capital and production (globalization). Companies move operations to low wage / low production cost countries to take advantage of this situation and improve the profits for the company and its shareholders. When the minimum wage in the United States is $7.50 per hour, plus health care costs, administrative and training costs compared to an hourly wage of 24 to 37 cents per worker in China, it is pretty clear where production facilities are going to be located. This has resulted in a large amount of manufacturing jobs being lost in the United States. Now, the same situation is beginning to effect white-collar service jobs in the United States.

Productivity

Employee productivity based on improved information technology management (scheduling, inventory, etc.) is of itself a desirable development. However, in economic situations where the economy is just emerging from a recession period it can place a structural limit (overcapacity) on the necessity of companies, especially manufacturers, from commencing new hiring.

Infrastructure

The United States must convert its radar-based air navigation / air traffic control system to a satellite-based / GPS system under the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) program.

U.S. road traffic has increased substantially. However, the average bridge age in the United States is 43 years, and approximately 26% are structurally deficient.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicates that in 2007 the U.S. recycled approximately 33% of municipal trash (approximately 254 million tons). The nation needs to increase recycling and disposal capacity.

Subsidies and Tariffs

The United States protects its agricultural products by the implementation of subsidies to producers (wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans, sunflowers) or tariffs on imported products. This results in taxpayer financed payments to U.S. producers so that they may sell their product at prices below the actual cost of production. The agricultural subsidy program is a substantial amount annually regardless of where agricultural prices are and how much income farmers are taking in. In addition, it brings the United States into periodic conflict with trading partners.

Gasoline Fuel Costs

In March 2011, U.S. retail gasline prices increased substantailly in response to popular uprsisings within North African and middle Eastern nations, which first resulted in the curtailment of further deliveries from Libya and then threatened continued supply from Saudi Arabia.

The Federal Highway Administration (U.S. Department of Transportation), reports that U.S. drivers drove less in March 2008, continuing a trend that began last November 2007. The FHWA's "Traffic Volume Trends" report, produced monthly since 1942, shows that estimated vehicle miles traveled (VMT) on all U.S. public roads for March 2008 fell 4.3 percent as compared with March 2007 travel. This is the first time estimated March travel on public roads fell since 1979. At 11 billion miles less in March 2008 than in the previous March, this is the sharpest yearly drop for any month in FHWA history.
www.fhwa.dot.gov/pressroom/fhwa0811.htm

Terrorism

For the past several decades, citizens of the United States could travel relatively anywhere with a reasonable level of safety. Unfortunately, that is no longer the case and it precludes the ability of companies to operate in certain locations of the world. In addition, the threat of terrorism has substantially increased the costs to companies to improve security. The same set of facts also effects U.S. government departmental and agency personnel, and the level of spending by the federal government, state governments and municipal governments to improve security has also increased substantially. Revised visa and travel regulations by the U.S. federal government has also made it more difficult for foreign nationals to travel to the United States for either business purposes or as a vacation destination. While the ability of markets to rapidly operate again following the events of September 11, 2001, have demonstrated that the U.S. economy can absorb a large shock and keep functioning, it is unknown if a sustained, low-level terror campaign on U.S. soil could also be tolerated.

Trade Deficit

The United States continues to experience a huge annual trade deficit (Current Account Deficit, which consists of goods, services and certain financial transfers), especially with China although the trade deficit has declined compared to the past due to the severe recession in the United States. The problem is that in dealing with the situation the national discussion tends to turn to protectionism, which is the opposite of the international position that the U.S. promotes of free trade and open markets. China has allowed direct investment by foreign corporations, many of them from the United States. In addition, China itself is also a large importer of products and services: China is the United State's fastest growing market for exports. The U.S.- China Business Council indicates that U.S. exports to China have increased by 330% from 2000 through 2009, increasing from $16.2 billion in 2000 to $69.6 billion in 2009 (by comparison, the U.S. exported $204.7 billion to Canada in 2009). However, as per the International Trade Administration (ITA), the primary exports from the United States to China consist of beverages, agricultural commodities (including tobacco; this category is referred to as food, feed and beverages), waste and scrap, and hard commodities such as iron, steel, copper and aluminum. Thus, the United States does not sell a large variety of manufacured products with higher margins to China (the two largest export markets for U.S. manufactured goods are NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico) but it does sell some types of industrial, agricultural, and service machinery, electronic components, aircraft, and has a growing market in passenger cars. Conversely, the United States purchases chemicals, computers and electronic products, paper, transportation equipment, and manufactured goods from China. In addition, China has recycled capital by becoming a substantial purchaser of U.S. government debt and the second largest creditor of the United States.

In June 2010, the Government of the people's Republic of China indicated that it would adopt a policy of the gradual appreciation of the Yuan (it is presently pegged at a fixed rate to the U.S. dollar) however there has been insufficient articulation of the plan although currency traders initially began to bid up the value ater the announcement. The advantage to the United States with the increase in the value of the Yuan is that it would make U.S. produced goods more attractive to Chinese consumers and make Chinese produced goods more expensive to U.S. consumers, which would allow U.S. domestic manufacturers to compete against low cost Chinese goods.

U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, International Economic Accounts At-A-Glance: www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm#intlacct

U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, International Economic Accounts: www.bea.gov/international/index.htm

Wal-Mart Effect

Wal-Mart is the largest retailer in the United States and the largest corporation in the United States in terms of sales. Wal-Mart is the nation's largest retailer of groceries and toys, and accounts for almost one third of all hair care products and disposal daipers sold in the U.S., and almost 25% of all pet food and toothpaste sold in the U.S. The company's sheer size affects:

Inflation: Wal-Mart's low price policy and continual pushing of suppliers to keep prices low has effected the inflation level in the United States.

Productivity: Wal-Mart's insistence on its suppliers being extremely efficient in receiving and shipping orders has resulted in the adoption of computer-based manufacturing and inventory control systems that allows fewer employees to acomplish much more than in the past.

Low-wage employment: Wal-Mart is still a growing company and a source of hiring in the United States. However, the majority of the positions are at minimum wage, non-union, and with healthcare benefits that do not provide extnsive coverage and still requires a substantial contribution from the employee.

Social Security

As per the Social Security Administration (SSA), in 2003 the SSA received $632 billion in revenue (taxes and interest income) and had program expenditures of $479 billion. The program provided payments to approximately 47 million retirees who paid into the system (and also provides payments to disabled persons). The income provided by the SSA (average annual payment is $14,000) amounted to more than 50% of the total annual income of two-thirds of recipient households and totaled to more than 90% of household income for the remaining one third of recipient households.

The (future) problem with the Social Security program in the United States is that although there are presently sufficient numbers of persons employed and paying monthly into the system to fund disbursements to retirees ("pay-as-you-go"), as the "baby-boom" generation begins to retire there will then be (due to demographics) an insufficient number of persons working to pay into the system to fund disbusements to retirees. Thus, it is anticipated that the Social Security program will reach an eventual point of insolvency (estimated after the year 2040; another statement by the U.S. government is that the projected social security shortfall over the next 75 years will be $3.7 trillion). This scenario assumes that the U.S. economy will not perform well and that immigration patterns will be lower than in the past.

One solution to the problem is to revise the program so that workers would have an opportunity to have a portion of the month social security taxes that they pay be deposited in an individual retirement account, thus workers would be partially responsible for managing the funds necessary for their own retirement. The counter argument to this is that less astute investors will not do a a very good job of selecting appropriate investments and / or that a "default" account for passive investors may under-perform the investments of more astute investors. Furthermore, if workers lost their funds (suppose there was an extreme depression at some point in the future) or failed to generate sufficient funds they may still need a guaranteed minimum pension, thus the Social Security system would still be responsible for providing some sort of disbursement. Additionally, as workers begin to divert payroll taxes into private accounts the U.S. government would have to borrow money (as much as $2 trillion) in order to have sufficient funds to meet existing obligations.

A controversy related to the future solvency of the U.S. Social Security program is that of life expectancy. The Social Security Administration uses a lower life expectancy projection than the Census Bureau and some other agencies and research institutes. The shorter life expectancy projection used by the Social Security Administration increases the length of the financial viability of the program. The Social Security Administration projects that male life expectancy at birth will be 81.2 yeras in 2075 while female life expectancy will be 85 in 2075. The Census Bureau projects that these life expectancy levels will be reached in 2050 for men and will exceed 86 years for women in 2050. The Census Bureau believes that death rates will continue to decline for the elderly similar to advances made in the past. Thus, if Americans are living longer then the fiscal solvency of the Social Security Program will actually occur sooner than the Social Security Administration is predicting.

According to the Social Security Administration:

Social Secuurity benefit payment in 2003 amounted to $479 billion (4.3% of the GDP)

During 2004, there were 3.3 workers per retiree. By 2050, there will be only 2 workers per retiree

By 2018, cash flow losses will begin to be incurred (annual expenses exceed annual revenues)

By 2042, the plans assets would be exhausted and the program would be reliant upon / funded by current annual tax recipts (expected to cover 73% of the plans expenses)

By 2078, Social Security income will be reduced to 69% of scheduled benefits (and would amount to 6.6% of GDP). In order to meet future obligations the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4%, split evenly between workers and employers) would need to be increased.

Other controversial solutions are is to perhaps either increase the present age of retirement from 65 years to 70 years to match the expected increase in life expectancy, or to perhaps reduce benefit growth for future generations. In addition, social security tax is paid on up to a maximum of $90,000 taxable wages, thus one solution is to increase the taxable wages maximum to $150,000.

Medicaid

In the United States, Medicaid is the publicly provided health insurance program provided to the poor and disabled. The cost to the U.S. government is several hundred billion dollars a year. Each state administers the program within its jurisdiction and the program is jointly funded with the federal government. The programs are very expensive accounting for 20% to 45% of a state's budget. Medicaid covers the expense of almost 75% of all americans in nursing homes.

Medicare

In the United States, Medicare is the publicly provided health insurance program provided to the elderly (65 and older, some qualified cases less than 65 years in age). This program is fully financed by the federal government.

Healthcare Coverage

The average american obtains their health care insurance coverage through a group plan with an employer. This was a practice that was started as an altruistic benefit to improve the life of the common laborer and to make sure that industries had a supply of healthy workers. It is also very efficient (for the insurance industry) to use the common denominator of employees located at company in order to identify a group of individuals that may need insurance and to have the payments deducted from pay checks. However, there is a large portion of the U.S. population that do not have health insurance coverage and rely upon Medicaid coverage or have no insurance at all. An issue continually uder discussion in the United States is how to provide universal health care coverage and how to pay for it.

Under the terms of the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Renconciliation Act of 1985 (COBRA), employers with more than 20 employees must make group health care coverage available to former employess for up to 18 months. When an employee changes a job they are required to be offered new coverage under the terms of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA).

U.S. Economic Indicators

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic analysis, and is the value of all goods and services produced by the United States (regardless of nationality) during a specific time period. When the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is increasing there is an increase in capital spending by businesses and increased hiring of available employment. GDP has replaced GNP (Gross National Product) as the GNP measuement included only domestic U.S. corporations and individuals.
www.bea.gov/national/index.htm

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims is reported by the U.S. Labor Department and indicates filings by laid-off workers for state unemployment insurance. There is usually a previous month figure and a 4-week moving average.
www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp   (Office of Workforce Security; Search past news releases).

Unemployment Rate is reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Labor Department and indicates the total number of laid-off workers as a percentage of the total work force. In the United States, the "natural" rate of unemployment with stable inflation conditions is approximately 5.0% to 5.5%.
www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm   Employment Situation Summary
www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf   Employment Situation Summary (.pdf format)
www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.toc.htm   Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)
bls.gov/ces/ceshilightsarch.htm   Archived Current Employment Statistics Monthly Highlights
www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/empsit_nr.htm   Archived News Releases for Employment Situation
www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm   Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary
www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.nr0.htm   Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary
www.bls.gov/jlt/   Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm   Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization (U-1 to U-6)

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the previous month is reported by the Conference Board: as consumer confidence increases so does consumer spending. The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households.
www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerConfidence.cfm

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor) and is an indication of inflation and is measured by looking at the annual percentage change of the cost of Food, Housing, Clothing, etc.
www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm
www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/cpi_nr.htm   Archived News Releases for Consumer Price Index

Personal Income for Metropolitan Areas is reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce).
www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/mpi/2009/mpi0809.htm

Personal Income and Outlays (Consumer Spending) is reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce).
http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#personal

The Consumer Expenditure Survey (2007) is reported by the U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and provides information on the buying habits of American consumers, including data on their increases / decreases in after tax income expenditures, income, and consumer unit (families and single consumers) characteristics.
www.bls.gov/cex/home.htm

Consumer Credit is reported by the Federal Reserve.
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/

Durable Goods Orders / Capital Goods Orders / Manufacturer's Shipments, Inventories and Orders for the previous month is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division.
www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, Retail Indicators Branch.
www.census.gov/mtis/www/mtis.html

Manufacturing Index: when the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Index increases above 50% this indicates that manufacturing and exports are improving.

National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago Index is indicative of manufacturing activity within the midwest. Any reading over 50 is indicative of expansion and is useful due to the high concentration of manufacturing employment within the Chicago area.

Annual Survey of Manufacturers is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division.
www.census.gov/mcd/asm-as2.html

Current Account Deficit indicates whether the nation is importing more goods and services than it is selling abroad and also indicates further borrowing to fund the trade deficit.

Balance of Payments (International Transactions) is reported by the Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
www.bea.gov/International/Index.htm

Foreign Trade Statistics is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division.
www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/

Federal Reserve Bank Open Market Committee sets monetary policy (including interest rates) in the U.S. The Fed also controls and reports weekly on the monetary aggregates M1, M2 and M3
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/

Federal Reserve Bank Beige Book is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources.
www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2008/default.htm

Building Permits for the previous month is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division.
www.census.gov/const/www/permitsindex.html

New Residential Sales for the previous month is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division.
www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html

New Residential Construction (Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions) for the previous month is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Construction Division.
www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html

Existing Home Sales for the previous month is reported by the National Association of Realtors and is indicative of which regions of the country are expanding or contracting and indicates how consumers are responding to existing mortgage rate levels.

Mortgage Loan Application Survey is reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association and is an indication of mortgage applications for new purchases and refinances of primary residential real estate properties.
www.mbaa.org/

Retail Sales is reported for the previous month by the U.S. Census Bureau.
www.census.gov/marts/www/marts.html
www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

E-Stats - Measuring the Electronic Economy is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
www.census.gov/eos/www/ebusiness614.htm

Producer Price Index (PPI) is reported by the U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and is reported for the previous month and indicates the cost of raw materials used by manufacturers of various products.
www.bls.gov/ppi/
www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/ppi_nr.htm   Archived News Releases for Producer Price Index

Productivity and Costs is reported by the U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and is reported for the previous month.
www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.toc.htm

Income is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division.
www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/income.html

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) (replaced the U.S. Standard Industrial Classification / SIC system) is a numbererd classification system of various types of industries, retailing, manufacturing, services and agriculture which allows a breakdown of statistics about each type of business activity across North America (utilized by the United States, Canada and Mexico).
www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html

Conference Board Leading Indicator Index

Average workweek of manufacturing production workers

Average initial weekly claims for state unemployment insurance

New orders for consumer goods and materials (adjusted for inflation)

Vendor performance (timely delivery from suppliers)

New orders for non-military capital goods (adjusted for inflation)

New building permits issued

Index of stock prices

M2 money supply (adjusted for inflation)

Spread between 10-year notes and federal funds

Index of consumer expectations

www.conference-board.org/

The Commodity Research Bureau Spot Index (CRB, introduced in 1956, owned by Logical Systems, Inc. of Chicago) is comprised of active commodity prices is an inflation and economic strength indicator:

Metals: Copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc

Textiles and Fibers: Burlap, cotton, print cloth, and wool tops

Livestock and Products: Hides, hogs, lard, steers, and tallow

Fats and Oils: Butter, soybean oil, lard, and tallow

Raw Industrials: Hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, and rubber (59.1%)

Foodstuffs: Hogs, steers, lard, butter, soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar (40.9%)

Reuters-CRB Futures Index

Energy: Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Natural Gas (17.6%)

Grains: Corn, Soybeans, Wheat (17.6%)

Industrials: Copper, Cotton (11.8%)

Livestock: Live Cattle, Lean Hogs (11.8%)

Precious Metals: Gold, Platinum, Silver (17.6%)

Softs: Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Sugar (23.5%)

The Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government is reported by the U.S. Treasury.
www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html

Stock indices: consumer spending in the U.S. has now become closely associated with short-term increases in stock indices. When there is a rebound in the market, consumer confidence and consumer spending increase. Please see Credit & Finance Risk Analysis' Equity Exchange Indices.

U.S. Government Resources

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System   www.federalreserve.gov/

Code of Federal Regulations (CFR)   www.gpoaccess.gov/cfr/index.html

Committee on Ways & Means, U..S. House of Representatives   waysandmeans.house.gov/

Federal Register   www.gpoaccess.gov/fr/index.html

Library of Congress   thomas.loc.gov/

Office of Management & Budget   www.whitehouse.gov/omb/

Public Access to Court Electronic Records (PACER)   pacer.psc.uscourts.gov/

Regulations.gov   www.regulations.gov/search/index.jsp

Supreme Court of the United States   www.supremecourtus.gov/

Treaties of the United States (Library of Congress)   thomas.loc.gov/home/treaties/treaties.htm

USA.gov (U.S. government's official web portal)   www.usa.gov/

U.S. Census Bureau, Economic Indicators   www.census.gov/cgi-bin/briefroom/BriefRm

U.S.- China Business Council   www.uschina.org/

U.S. Government News/Press Release Websites   www.pueblo.gsa.gov/call/pressreleases.htm

U.S. Code Search   uscode.house.gov/search/criteria.shtml

U.S. Department of Justice   www.usdoj.gov/

U.S. House of Representatives   www.house.gov/

U.S. Senate   www.senate.gov/

White House (Office of the President)   www.whitehouse.gov/